Our recent paper published in Science Advances received some media attention, and for good reasons. This research, led by Dr. Qianjiang Xing when he was a postdoctoral researcher at Rosenstiel, has revealed that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening at four different latitudes throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. This significant finding is based on data from the RAPID-MOCHA array near 26.5°N, which has provided the most comprehensive and longest direct record of the AMOC over the past 20 years. The RAPID array’s measurements indicate a notable decline in the AMOC’s strength. The new thing in this research is that observations from three other arrays, though partial because only focusing on the western boundary of the Atlantic Ocean, align consistently with the RAPID array’s data, confirming the widespread nature of the weakening. The study employed a uniform methodology across the four latitudes, demonstrating that the trend observed at 26.5°N is also present elsewhere. In a sense, observations at the western boundary, in isolation from the eastern boundary, constitute the canary in a coal mine for the tendency of the AMOC. These findings support the evidence of a broader weakening of the AMOC.

Within about a week, another article was published in the same journal which concluded that a 50% AMOC weakening of the AMOC is expected by the end of this century. This study carefully used the outputs of multiple climate models to obtain an estimate of the AMOC strength of the AMOC by 2100 but doing so by carefully constraining the models to in situ observations, including the strength of the AMOC measured by our RAPID-MOCHA array at 26.5°N.

Links to media coverage:

CNN article: A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents is weakening and closer to collapse than thought, new studies find., by Laura Paddison.

New Scientist: Key ocean current is slowing at locations around the Atlantic, by Alec Luhn.

USA Today: 2 studies warn ‘Day After Tomorrow’ ocean current is in trouble by Doyle Rice.

My Interview on the USA Today podcast The Excerpt, with host Dana Taylor: Doomscrolling alert: The Atlantic current may be headed for collapse.

References:

Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by Qianjiang Xing et al. (2026),

Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century, by Valentin Portmann et al. (2026).

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